Prof. Utpal Bhattacharya
Pranava Tripathi
Shashank Bhansali
Vivek Edlabadkar
Abstract
In the present article a case has been designed to study whether to invest in GESHIP stock trading and ifyes whatshould be the term of investment. The objectives of the present study are as given below. Check states for very short, short, medium, and long term share prices using transition matrix prepared based onfive years stock prices. Modify transition matrix based on analyst report using Mote Carlo simulation and repeat step [a] using modified transition matrix. Summarize findings from step [a] and [b] and compare the probability of share price going down in various state matrixes obtained with risk appetite ofthe investor
Keywords- Markov Process, Transition matrix, Monte Carlo Simulation.